From Sterbal's Sundry Studies

Pure study[edit]

Probability of an Obese Person Attaining Normal Body Weight: Cohort Study Using Electronic Health Records[edit]

Objectives. We examined the probability of an obese person attaining normal body weight.


We drew a sample of individuals aged 20 years and older from the United Kingdom’s Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 2004 to 2014. We analyzed data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women. We excluded participants who received bariatric surgery. We estimated the probability of attaining normal weight or 5% reduction in body weight.


During a maximum of 9 years’ follow-up, 1283 men and 2245 women attained normal body weight. In simple obesity (body mass index = 30.0–34.9 kg/m2), the annual probability of attaining normal weight was 1 in 210 for men and 1 in 124 for women, increasing to 1 in 1290 for men and 1 in 677 for women with morbid obesity (body mass index = 40.0–44.9 kg/m2). The annual probability of achieving a 5% weight reduction was 1 in 8 for men and 1 in 7 for women with morbid obesity.


The probability of attaining normal weight or maintaining weight loss is low. Obesity treatment frameworks grounded in community-based weight management programs may be ineffective. (Am J Public Health. 2015;105: e54–e59. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2015.302773)

Obesity rate over time[edit]

"Approximately 10 percent of U.S. adults were classified as obese during the 1950s. In 2011 to 2012, however, the CDC reported approximately 35 percent of U.S. adults were obese; the prevalence of obesity among American adults has more than tripled within the last six decades.Feb 1, 2016"

The key question is what is different from the 1950s. Some combination of those differences is what has changed the obesity rate.

Note that the 10% rate in the 1950s was not 0%. Some obesity is a normal state of a population.


Scientific fact: The dose makes the poison.

Carbs aren't inherently bad. Eating TOO MUCH carb is bad, especially with too much bad fat, too much good fat, or too much salt.

Nutritionists aren't wrong when they use buzz words like "moderation" and "balance." The problem with that is it's like saying "calories in/calories out." It's the end result which most people can't or won't achieve, because they're either given bad advice or their "good" food choices are limited. They choose a diet Coke to avoid the sugar, but have no idea how much "sugar," salt and bad fat is hidden in that low fat, low calorie, gluten-free processed food. The cheapest, most accessible food in the US is packed with the most carbohydrate, bad fat and sodium. A diet that is more balanced with good fats, protein and whole food carbohydrates, with the carbohydrates making up 1/3 or less of the total calories, isn't going to make anyone fat or sick, if they're eating enough protein and good fat and not overeating in general. My guess is most obese folks are getting 2/3 or more of their calories from carbs and bad fats, though. It is about moderation and balance, but those words are pretty much meaningless to most people (both are relative) and very difficult to achieve given the majority of our food choices.


Weight History and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Three Prospective Cohort Studies

Effects of weight loss interventions for adults who are obese on mortality, cardiovascular disease, and cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis

See Also[edit]

I asked the Obesity society if the knew about additional research with this tweet: https://twitter.com/rsterbal/status/1499755094119784449

What Links Here?[edit]